Are men a problem?

Response to a Brookings Essay

While I cannot provide definitive evidence at this time, I believe that stories and feelings are far more persuasive than facts and numbers. In fact, I consider this a data rule: feelings can outweigh facts. Furthermore, relatively few people will change their minds, even when confronted with overwhelming evidence that they are incorrect. The problem here is that the media generally effectively uses stories to sell their narrative, which can be factually correct in what they say while still being misleading, often by what is left out or assumed to be true. Let us dissect one such editorial from Brookings, The growing gender gap among young people (5/23/2024).

The headline is innocent enough, but here are the final two paragraphs. Do you think they match?

There are also darker concerns about the potential backlash to recent social developments. History is littered with examples of nations suffering from the consequences of young men finding themselves idle without purpose.

We may be in the opening stages of a social backlash to the progressive social movements of the past decades. When significant societal change occurs, some may feel left behind or cheated. Right now, young men fall into that camp. The challenge now will be ensuring that the backlash does not transform into real damage, especially for women. If the aim is to build a fairer equitable future where all feel they have a role and are respected, the polling of Gen Z appears to show we are moving in the opposite direction.

As you go through the essay, you will see that the story is basically that young women have become more liberal (obviously the right thing), while young men have remained relatively the same (should have become more liberal), and the overall gap is cause for alarm, as indicated in the preceding paragraphs. If you only want a summary, as this is a long one, skip to the conclusions section at the bottom. The short response is that the article has not presented a case for drawing the conclusions in the last two paragraphs.

This essay begins with the Gallup article U.S. Women Have Become More Liberal; Men Mostly Stable (2/7/204). Brookings uses their data and creates essentially the same graph. I believe they did it for two reasons. The first is that they shortened the y-axis, making the change appear larger than it is, and they used it in their style. All of this gives the impression that they worked harder than they actually did. I'll copy the original Gallup graphs here.

As you can see, males who identify as liberal have remained quite consistent, though older men and those aged 30-49 have increased slightly. Now consider the same graph for women.

Young women aged 18 to 29 were stable until 2013, when they began a 10-point increase over a decade, though they have decreased 5 points in recent years. No other group experienced such a significant increase over this time period. The 65+ group followed a similar pattern, but from 2011 to 2023 and there was only a 5-point increase. Interestingly, the 30-49 age group increased significantly between 2013 and 2018, but then declined to where they started. When you compare these two graphs, it is evident that the young woman group is an outlier. Younger individuals are more liberal, and this is true for men as well, but there is a 12-point difference between women aged 18 to 29 and the next group, 30-49. We'll see if it holds up over time as the younger generation ages. Regardless, it appears that a few questions regarding young women are needed and that we should not simply assume they suddenly have the proper beliefs and everyone else has the wrong ones, but their point of view is evident when they say this:

Additionally, it showed that young men have been the slowest among all groups to move towards more liberal values over the nearly 10-year period.

Before moving on to their discussion of men, let me pause and point out that everything isn’t great for young women. For example, I noted in QTRS May 23, 2024

The Gallup report, Americans Sleeping Less, More Stressed: Women, particularly those under age 50, report sleeping less than they need and higher stress levels than men. (4/15/2024) shows that life seems to be getting worse for women. First, the percent of younger women, 18–49, saying they are getting enough sleep dropped from 42% in 2013 to 27% in 2023. There was only a 6-point drop for younger men to 46%. There were also roughly 20-point drops for older men and women, but younger women are still well below everyone else.

and

Younger women who reported they were frequently experiencing stress in daily life rose from 46% in 2007 to 60% in 2017 to 69% in 2023. It would have been to have a measurement somewhere between 2007 and 2017, but this does seem to provide more evidence that social media has impacted younger women and not younger men. Either way, something is going wrong. Women are better educated then men, the pay gap has shrunk, and they have more freedom then ever, yet they seem worse off. Why?

Or, read the article Why the Mental Health of Liberal Girls Sank First and Fastest (3/9/2023). Perhaps the issue with the gender gap is one with young women. I could argue that being liberal is bad for girls, but it would imply causation; being liberal causes mental health problems, which we do not have evidence for. Anyway, let us move on to what the Brookings report states about guys, one of which is that they do not identify as feminists sufficiently.

The Survey Center on American Life’s findings also support a divide in self-identification, with young women being much more likely to identify themselves as “feminists” than young men. Only 43% of Gen Z men identify in this way, much less than Millennial men, while 61% of Gen Z women describe themselves as feminist compared to 54% of Millennial women and 49% of Generation X women.

I’m not going to take this too seriously until the term “feminists” is clearly defined, as it likely differs from generation to generation. It also may not be as bad as Brookings wants it to be, as there is this in the Survey Center on American Life’s findings.

The largest gender gap in views about feminism is found among Generation Z adults. Nearly seven in 10 (69 percent) Gen Z women and 52 percent of Gen Z men agree that feminism has made America a better place. The gender gap is still significant, but notably smaller, among millennials, Generation Xers, and baby boomers.

Interestingly, a majority of Gen Z men felt that feminism made America better, even though only 43% identify as feminists.

The turning point in the essay seems to start here:

Young men have repeatedly been found in recent years to be apathetic towards voting, with young women in recent election cycles constantly turning out to vote at higher rates than young men.

I really encourage you to click on links cited in articles, as they often don’t back up what the author says. Here is the graph from the link that they must be referring to.

The gender discrepancy at ages 18–24 is consistent. Is the quote assuming that "recent years" date back to 1996? The website has an interactive graph. If you click on the 25-44 age bracket, you'll notice the same type of consistency. This is true for all age groups, except one. Between 2016 and 2020, women in the 75+ age category narrowed the gap with men, who vote at a higher rate. The quoted paragraph appears to simply not be true, but it is the basis for an argument that men are “less tied to democracy” and long with “becoming disheartened with their social status” (more on this later) we get this quote:

But what exactly are men experiencing which could make this scenario a potential reality? Well, young men are overwhelmingly the loneliest demographic, with 63% of men aged 18 to 29 reporting being single, compared to 34% of women in the same age group.

Did you catch the bait and switch? The Pew survey was just about whether you are single or not; it wasn’t a question about loneliness. In fact, if you click the link, you will find this:

Among Americans who are single, the largest share – 57% – say they are not currently looking for a relationship or casual dates.

and this

Single men are more likely than their female counterparts to be searching for romantic experiences. Half of these men are looking for a committed relationship and/or casual dates, while 35% of single women say the same.

I'm not sure whether someone should be called lonely if they aren't looking for a mate, but let's go with it. If we assume that these numbers apply to the 18–29 age group, then half of the 63% of males who are single do not want to be, implying that 31.5% of men are single and do not wish to be. Perhaps they could be termed a lonely group. Similarly, approximately 11% of young women could be considered lonely. Yes, there is a difference, but the Brookings paper is exaggerated at best and possibly entirely incorrect, and what I offer here is merely a proposed definition. It would be preferable if there was an actual survey. Oh, wait, there's Google.

I couldn’t yet find exactly what I was looking for but the Gallop article Almost a Quarter of the World Feels Lonely (10/24/2023) has this chart.

Now, maybe the U.S. is different, and maybe young men are an outlier in the U.S., but right now, the best information I have suggests that loneliness isn’t that much different between me and women.

One last point before I move on. How exactly are 34% of young women single while 63% of young men are? I get that women tend to date older men, so maybe that explains some of the difference, or maybe some of these young men are dating more than one young woman. Either way, something needs to be explained here.

There are two more paragraphs to consider.

The study also shows young men increasingly feel as though they are experiencing discrimination over the past four years. Nearly half of all men aged 18 to 29 said they felt this way, the highest of all male age groups surveyed.

Nothing else is said, and this is the foundation for their allegation that males are "becoming disheartened with their social status." There is an important question not asked: is the feeling here accurate or not? Is it grounded in reality? I'll add this question to my list of essays to write if I find relevant facts. Any other group that claimed they were being discriminated against would be treated seriously. This is completely ignored in this essay.

Last paragraph, and I’ll note that all of this “evidence” is not a recent change.

Suicide rates among men in 2021 were four times higher among males than females. Men commit almost 96% of the mass shootings in the country, demonstrating how men are very likely to act upon their social isolation in extremely violent ways. In education, women now receive 58% of bachelor’s degrees and 61% of master’s degrees, representing yet another area where men are increasingly falling behind.

Suicides. This is incredibly lazy. The author finds an NIH page with one year of data. It really didn’t take long to find this graph in a NCHS report. In other words, the fact that males commit suicides at a higher rate is nothing new. The thing is, there is nothing surprising about this.

Mass Shootings. The 96% figure is based on data from 1966 to 2022. Again, this is nothing new or surprising. Why not just say 90+% of those in jail are male? Second, there is nothing on the page linked to that connects mass shooting to “social isolation.” It might not be hard to do, but please provide some evidence if you are going to make this claim. The author is trying to make the connection from a statement of loneliness to social isolation, which isn’t the same.

Education. The link here is to a table. I guess they didn’t want to make a graph. Here it is from my post, Female vs Male Undergraduate Enrollment (8/15/2023). The gap in undergraduate enrollment (note this is not degrees earned but it is close enough) has been largely stable since 2000. Again, this is nothing new.

Conclusion

Let’s go back to those last two paragraphs.

There are also darker concerns about the potential backlash to recent social developments. History is littered with examples of nations suffering from the consequences of young men finding themselves idle without purpose.

We may be in the opening stages of a social backlash to the progressive social movements of the past decades. When significant societal change occurs, some may feel left behind or cheated. Right now, young men fall into that camp. The challenge now will be ensuring that the backlash does not transform into real damage, especially for women. If the aim is to build a fairer equitable future where all feel they have a role and are respected, the polling of Gen Z appears to show we are moving in the opposite direction.

Did this article argue that men are a threat to the "progressive social movements of the past decade" and are gearing up for a backlash that would cause "damage?" First, observe that the terms males and young men are used interchangeably. What the authors say is that young men aren’t appropriately liberal enough, like young women are. They aren't feminist enough, even if the majority believe feminism has been beneficial. They believe they are being discriminated against, which may be true, but no evidence one way or another is given. Perhaps they are more lonely than women, but there is no clear evidence other than that they are more likely to be single. Then there are a slew of issues—suicides, mass shootings, voting rates, and educational attainment—that have been the same for decades. Furthermore, the argument that young men are disconnected from the political process, upon which much of their essay is based, is false. In the end, we have a mistitled piece that perhaps should have been named The problem with young guys is that they are not as liberal as young women. Finally, despite all of this, there is no concern for young men's well-being. The concern here is that they may pose a threat. Perhaps their feelings of being discriminated against are not irrational.

The trouble is, I believe this is a genuine statement: history is riddled with examples of nations suffering as a result of young men being idle and unproductive. If this is a concern, which it could be, conduct more research and try to make the case. In fact, I discuss the issue of too many single males in W.E.I.R.D. and the new kinship (10/31/2023) and believe I make a stronger argument for what is happening. Keep in mind that I do this in my spare time, rather than being paid by Brookings to write an essay.

Please share and like

Please help me find readers by forwarding this article to your friends (and even those who aren't your friends), sharing this post on social media, and clicking like. If you're on Twitter, you can find me at BriefedByData. If you have any article ideas, feedback, or other views, please email me at briefedbydata@substack.com.

Thank you

In a crowded media market, it's hard to get people to read your work. I have a long way to go and I want to say thank you to everyone who has helped me find and attract subscribers. 

Disagreeing and using comments

I'd rather know the truth and understand the world than always be right. I'm not writing to upset or antagonize anyone on purpose, though I guess that could happen. I welcome dissent and disagreement in the comments. We all should be forced to articulate our viewpoints and change our minds when we need to, but we should also know that we can respectfully disagree and move on. So, if you think something said is wrong or misrepresented, then please share your viewpoint in the comments.