Energy and CO2 predictions

World Energy Outlook 2024

The iea produces a world energy outlook with predictions each year, and according to them, they are the most authoritative source of this information. “The IEA's flagship World Energy Outlook, published every year, is the most authoritative global source of energy analysis and projections.”

I’m going to highlight a few of their charts from World Energy Outlook 2024 as they support my theme that we are just going to keep using energy and the climate will warm. We need to focus more attention on adaptations. Also, by doing this post, I can refer back to it next year and compare any changes in the 2025 report.

One key definition is that for the Stated Policies Scenario. Here is what the AI bot associated with the report said:

The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) in the World Energy Outlook 2024 explores how energy systems evolve under today’s policies and private sector momentum. It does not aim for a specific outcome but rather examines where current efforts are likely to lead global energy systems. The scenario takes a detailed look at the concrete policies and measures in effect as of August 2024 and assesses their impact on energy demand and supply. It also considers private sector actions, including fuel production and manufacturing capacity of clean energy technologies, and evaluates how these market dynamics influence future trends. The STEPS is associated with a temperature rise of 2.4 °C by 2100 with a 50% probability ​

In short, the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) is that we largely keep doing what we have been doing or said we will do. Let’s go to the data.

Oil

According to STEPS, global oil demand peaks around 2029, and by 2035 we are only down to our demand in 2023. The interesting thing here is the impact of EV uptake. If the uptake is slower than expected, we will still be using more oil in 2035 than today. The influence of EVs isn’t that large in that the swing from the faster to slower EV update is about 4 mb/d (million barels per day), or about 4% of oil demand. In other words, either way, the iea predicts we will still be burning plenty of oil ten years from now.

Regionally, we see what we might expect. Wealthier regions, Europe and North America, can afford some EVs, add some renewables, and look to be more efficient. Less wealthy regions just want more energy and a better life. To me, it will be interesting to see how close to reality the prediction in the chart below ends up.

Electricity

The prediction here is that coal use will decrease by about a third. We’ll see, but the prediction still has the world burning a lot of coal in 2025. Natural gas levels out in a couple of years, and that seems optimistic to me.

The prediction is nearly a 4-fold increase in solar electricity generation by 2035. Again, I’m skeptical about this one. Similary, wind electricity is predicted to nearly double by 2035.

I would be on more coal and natural gas use than predicted and less wind and solar. Overall, the eia has this to say about electricity (bold mine).

The contours of a new, more electrified energy system are coming into focus as global electricity demand soars. Electricity use has grown at twice the pace of overall energy demand over the last decade, with two-thirds of the global increase in electricity demand over the last ten years coming from China. Electricity demand growth is set to accelerate further in the years ahead, adding the equivalent of Japanese demand to global electricity use each year in the STEPS, and rising even more quickly in scenarios that meet national and global net zero goals. The projections for global electricity demand in STEPS are 6%, or 2 200 terawatt-hours (TWh), higher in 2035 than in last year’s Outlook, driven by light industrial consumption, electric mobility, cooling, and data centres and AI.

In just one year, the eia increased the electricity demand by 6% for 2035. I won’t be surprised if they increase it again next year. We’ll see. I do appreciate the nod to the electricity demands for data centers.

Energy-related CO2

The obvious thing to notice here is that net zero by 2050 isn’t happening. Under STEPS, we might emit 10% or so more energy-related CO2 in 2035 than today.

In the end, warming is going to continue, and society is going to do little about it. We want out energy and luxuries. We need to ramp up our focus on adaptation strategies.

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Please let me know if you believe I expressed something incorrectly or misinterpreted the data. I'd rather know the truth and understand the world than be correct. I welcome comments and disagreement. We should all be forced to express our opinions and change our minds, but we should also know how to respectfully disagree and move on. Send me article ideas, feedback, or other thoughts at briefedbydata@substack.com.

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I am a tenured mathematics professor at Ithaca College (PhD Math: Stochastic Processes, MS Applied Statistics, MS Math, BS Math, BS Exercise Science), and I consider myself an accidental academic (opinions are my own). I'm a gardener, drummer, rower, runner, inline skater, 46er, and R user. I’ve written the textbooks “R for College Mathematics and Statistics” and “Applied Calculus with R.” I welcome any collaborations.