The Chronicle of Higher Education article, How Do Humanities Majors Fare in the Work Force? (11/14/2023) reports on a study by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (AAA&S) and has this to say in the second paragraph:
But a new report from the American Academy of Arts and Sciences contradicts the narrative that humanities degrees are a waste of money. College graduates in every state who majored in humanities fields like history, philosophy, and English literature outearned people with no degree, according to the academy’s data.
The Chronicle article also has a table of data to back up this statement (I added the question mark).
The first line in the table reveals that a person with a humanities degree makes 158.9% more than a person with a high school diploma only in Washington, D.C. The Data Rule: Large disparities warrant skepticism, applies to this data. Let’s scrutinize this result a bit, but before I do that, let me make a few points. First, I think the return on investment that Higher Ed is using to justify its costs is a disastrous narrative. Beyond the fact that it isn’t always true and may not continue to be true in many circumstances, there are additional reasons to go to college, at least for some people. I’ll also add that I have nothing against humanities degrees; again, for some students, they are worth it and a good fit. What I do have an issue with is misleading information, especially from “educated” writers who should know better. I’ll focus on the Washington, D.C., result and refer to Figure 2 in my analysis. I haven’t looked at other states, but I think a similar logic as below will hold. My goal here is to take down the biggest gap in earnings in Figure 1.
Humanities B.S. vs Advanced Degree
The first issue with the finding presented in The Chronicle, Figure 1, is that it combines people with only a Humanities B.S. with those who went on to earn an advanced degree. Comparing the earnings of someone who went to law school, for example, with those of someone who simply graduated from high school seems a little unfair. Worse, The Chronicle was not required to do so because the AAA&S survey listed separate earnings for B.S. and advanced degrees.
Figure 2 displays these different categories. Students in the Humanities BS Only category have not finished any degree beyond their Humanities B.S. The Humanities Degree group is anyone with a humanities degree, as reported in the Chronicle. Finally, the Humanities Advanced (any field) category is for those who have earned a Humanities undergraduate degree but then went on to earn another advanced degree.
When comparing a high school degree group ($40,679) to the Humanities BS Only group ($85,000), the percent gain drops to 110% from 158.9% when comparing high school grads to the whole Humanities B.S. group. 110% is still a large increase, and the Chronicle could have used this, but it seems they wanted to inflate the increase unfairly. This makes the Chronicle's argument appear more like propaganda than accurate reporting to me.
The sample
The problem with all of the return on investment arguments advanced by higher education is that the people who attend college are not chosen at random. The Chronicle article and the AAA&S study would like you to believe that getting a humanities degree causes higher earnings. In general, one can argue that college students are "smarter," more motivated, and have higher executive skills than non-college students. However, a key factor is that attending college implies an investment in one's future. What we need is a comparison group of high school graduates who are investing in their future. One such group would be those who apprentice in a trade. Hence, the plumber and electrician categories in Figure 2.
I used Indeed and Zip Recruiter to estimate annual earnings for these two groups. There are some differences between the two sources, but I think they are close enough for a comparison. Also, the AAA&S data are medians, whereas the Indeed and Zip data are means. This is a bit unfair, but I don’t think the plumber and electrician earnings are likely to be skewed much to the right.
This is not a perfect comparison, but there is a strong case to be made that a plumber or electrician earns the same as a humanities degree. In fact, if I wanted a catchy clickbait headline, I could use Plumbers make as much as humanities graduates. The point here is that when we look at a more fair comparison with college graduates, their wages don't look as fantastic. Making a comparison to all people with just a high school degree isn’t fair.
This goes back to my earlier point about higher education avoiding the ROI argument. The market is already experimenting with new ways for individuals to invest in themselves. There are numerous free online learning resources available currently. Degree requirements for at least some state government employment have now been eliminated in 13 states. Is it really necessary for a bright, ambitious 18-year-old to attend college and pursue a humanities degree, or any degree? Perhaps not.
The time variable
It's unclear whether the AAA&S adjusted for the ages of their cohorts, and I'm guessing they didn't. For example, if the humanities group is disproportionately older, their earnings will be higher. In other words, the age distributions of the two groups should be similar for a fair comparison. This is a time-variable problem.
A similar concern is that an 18-year-old wants to know if pursuing a humanities degree now will pay off in the future. Sure, if you went to college 30 years ago, you are more likely to have made more money than someone who did not. The AAA&S does provide some information here. It states that the median earnings of a humanities major aged 22–26 are $56,000, while those aged 30-59 earn $117,000. That is a significant increase, which is most likely attributable to more people in the 30-59 age range earning advanced degrees. How does this stack up against our plumber?
The Washington DC Local 5 Plumbers & Gasfitters has an apprentice program. Apprentices earn $44,100 per year for the first six months, with earnings increasing by 5% every six months. After four years, their hourly wage is $39,20, or $78,400 per year. This not only outperforms the humanities degree, but the plumber also made money for four years. The driven student who chose plumbing at the age of 22 made more than $200,000, but our humanities major is likely to have considerable school debt and have earned little money between the ages of 18 and 22. I'll also point out that ChatGPT cannot come to your house and fix your plumbing. So, is a humanities degree still valuable today? There are, at the very least, other options.
Are they using their humanities degree?
What do humanities majors do in Washington, DC? This information is included in the AAA&S report. Management accounts for 22%, legal accounts for 17%, and business and finance accounts for 14%. None of these options required a degree in the humanities. In some circumstances, these students might have benefited from a different degree.
10% are involved in the arts, design, entertainment, and media. Perhaps some of these students are applying their humanities expertise. 7% are employed in education. These are most likely English and history teachers. They required a degree in the humanities.
7% work in service and sales, while another 5% work in office and administrative support. It isn’t clear that these students needed to go to college. The remaining 17% are categorized as others.
Given this, I wouldn’t be selling a humanities degree based on the return on investment. The future return may not be great, and there may be better college options that align with future employment. Again, I want to restate that I think the ROI is a bad argument and that there is value in the skills developed as a humanities major. For example, I would say that I still want people to learn history on a deep level. I'll leave the debate over whether this skill growth and learning are genuinely taking place for another day.
One last point
By state, the AAA&S report compares humanities degrees to other degrees. Humanities majors in DC, for example, make $105,000, while business and natural science majors earn $103,000. Engineers, on the other hand, make $123,000. These are the median yearly wages. These comparisons have some of the same issues as above. This data, in particular, is not broken down into B.S.-only and advanced degrees. For all we know, natural science majors were not required to pursue postgraduate degrees in order to compete financially with humanities majors. Or maybe this works in reverse. The Data Rule: Avoid making assumptions based on a single factor is almost always relevant. I'll also mention that I chose the humanities primarily because of the propaganda article released by the Chronicle. Much of what has been mentioned here is applicable to many other college degrees.
So, is a humanities degree worth it? Maybe, maybe not, but don't base your decision on the Chronicle article, as it is more of a sales pitch than useful information. The Chronicle should do better.
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