QTRS Jan 9, 2025
Graphs and interesting content for the curious
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As I see it…
One of my themes is that the climate is going to continue to warm as we are still increasing our use of fossil fuels. 2024 is likely to breach the 1.5°C and this is no real surprise, as back in June the World Meteorological Organization had this to say
The global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline, according to the WMO report. It says that it is likely (86%) that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, beating 2023 which is currently the warmest year.
There is a 47% likelihood that the global temperature averaged over the entire five-year 2024-2028 period will exceed 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial era, says the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Update – up from 32% from last year’s report for the 2023-2027 period.
So far, there is no evidence that we won’t keep increasing the projections for warming, and we’ll likely exceed 2°C.
As I see it and keep saying we need to put effort into adaptations, which also means taking the IPCC predictions on the effects of warming seriously. For example, on the California Climate Adaptation Strategy page Summary of Projected Climate Change Impacts on California, they note this:
The latest IPCC report included relevant regional projections that reaffirm the findings from the CA Fourth Assessment highlighted below; California faces increased temperatures, drought, fire weather, and more extreme flooding.
Given this, it boggles the mind to read this (1/9/2025, bold mine):
In the video, the mayor remained seemingly stunned and silent as she was peppered with questions about her disappearance and decision to cut funding from the LA Fire Department last year.
The mayor in question is LA mayor Karen Bass. The title of the article is LA Officials Warned of Extreme Fire Risk Days Before Mayor Skipped Town. I don’t really care that the Bass “skipped town,” even though, as the subtitle says, “the U.S. Forest Service, National Weather Service, and others warned over a week ago that fires would strike Los Angeles on Tuesday. They were right.”
What bothers me is cutting funding for the LA Fire Department. Predictions are that CA will see warmer weather and more drought, which means more wildfires. One way for CA and LA to adapt is to make sure they have the staffing to deal with wildfires. All regions need to look carefully at the predictions for the impacts of warming and look to fund what will be needed in the future. I’m not betting we are going to be that smart.
Headwind for wind power
In its latest offshore wind auction, the largest offshore wind auction in Denmark’s history, the country offered 3 additional offshore wind sies of 1 GW each. It also allowed developers to overbuild the areas by another 1 GW.
Yesterday the auction results came in: not a single bid was submitted for any of the three sites.
This comes from the article No offshore bids in Denmark – disappointing but sadly not surprising (12/6/2024). Now there are some mitigating circumstances, as they note:
The Danish auction system does not foresee any form of state support or revenue stabilisation model – such as the Contracts for Difference (CfD) used in many other European countries. Instead offshore wind developers are asked to pay for the right to build a wind farm. Denmark’s uncapped negative bidding creates an unhealthy race to the bottom and unnecessarily increases the upfront costs for offshore wind developers. On top of that Denmark does not pay for the grid connection to the offshore wind farms, instead developers have to take on these extra costs.
They also say
Another explanation for the lack of bids is that the costs to develop an offshore wind farm have increased significantly due to inflation and rising commodity prices. Likewise interest rates are now significantly higher than they were a few years ago. This is putting pressure on the economics of the projects.
My takeaway here is that wind power needs subsidies of some kind, probably more than we realize, and favorable borrowing conditions. In other words, wind power isn’t as economically viable as we are being told. As the best locations for wind power are likely built out first, it will then get harder to produce more wind power with the less efficient locations. We’ll see.
Male-female differences
I realize that we aren’t supposed to suggest that men and women might be different, but science might think otherwise. The paper Sex Differences in Human Brain Structure at Birth (10/17/2024) provides evidence that differences in the brain start early.
Our findings suggest that sex differences in brain structure are present from the earliest stage of postnatal life and show an overlap with the sex differences observed in future stages of development. We report comparatively fewer sex-by-age interactions, indicating that several of these sex differences are established during the prenatal period and thereafter remain relatively stable during the neonatal period. The early emergence of these differences supports the hypothesis that prenatal factors play a pivotal role in initiating sex differences in the brain.
Gestation period and Mortality
While we are on female-male differences, here is another example from the paper Mortality from external causes in late adolescence and early adulthood by gestational age and sex: a population-based cohort study in four Nordic countries (11/4/2024)
Mortality from external causes overall was higher in preterm than full term born among both males and females. A clear sex difference was seen for suicide, where preterm birth was a risk factor in females, but not in males.
The other obvious pattern is that the males have much higher rates of death for all categories here.
Busing study
The NBER paper, Busing to Opportunity? The Impacts of the METCO Voluntary School Desegregation Program on Urban Students of Color (summary 1/1/2025) looks at the impacts of busing students to different schools.
The Metropolitan Council for Educational Opportunity (METCO) program in Boston is a voluntary program for urban students and suburban school districts, that busses non-White students from Boston to wealthier, Whiter suburbs.
The key to this study is that not all students that apply to the METCO program get in, and selection is based on a lottery. This provides control and experiment groups. A lot of studies like this look at students that say went to a charter school and compare them to groups that didn’t. In cases like this, there is a clear bias in students that chose the charter school option. The graph summarizes results.
My bet here is the impact is less about better teaching and more about the impacts of the peer group. Anything I’ve read suggests that peers have large impacts on kids. Surround a child with other children that expect to go to college, and they are more likely to go to college, for example.
Fun photo from the LOC
For those dealing with winter, there are some fun photos from the Library of Congress post Want to Build a Snowman? (1/8/2025). Here is one from 1888.
Data center update
This is encouraging (1/6/2025)
New evidence suggests that artificial intelligence (AI) data centers are distorting the quality of electricity delivered to homes, heightening the risks of appliance damage and fire.
Yet the building will continue (1/8/2025)
Amazon Web Services (AWS) plans to invest around $11 billion in data centers in Georgia.
The spinning CD
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Please let me know if you believe I expressed something incorrectly or misinterpreted the data. I'd rather know the truth and understand the world than be correct. I welcome comments and disagreement. We should all be forced to express our opinions and change our minds, but we should also know how to respectfully disagree and move on. Send me article ideas, feedback, or other thoughts at briefedbydata@substack.com.
Bio
I am a tenured mathematics professor at Ithaca College (PhD Math: Stochastic Processes, MS Applied Statistics, MS Math, BS Math, BS Exercise Science), and I consider myself an accidental academic (opinions are my own). I'm a gardener, drummer, rower, runner, inline skater, 46er, and R user. I’ve written the textbooks “R for College Mathematics and Statistics” and “Applied Calculus with R.” I welcome any collaborations. I welcome any collaborations.