QTRS July 4, 2024

Interesting content for the curious

On Chevron

If you are a news junkie or just paying attention, then you are aware that the Supreme Court overturned Chevron. If not, then here is a one-sentence summary from the NYT:

The precedent, Chevron v. Natural Resources Defense Council, one of the most cited in American law, requires courts to defer to agencies’ reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes.

I’m not going to weigh in on whether this decision is good or bad, but I do want to comment on this quote from the NYT article:

Justice Kagan echoed that view. “Some interpretive issues arising in the regulatory context involve scientific or technical subject matter,” she wrote. “Agencies have expertise in those areas; courts do not. Some demand a detailed understanding of complex and interdependent regulatory programs. Agencies know those programs inside-out; again, courts do not.”

The assumption here is that scientific or technical knowledge will lead to the "correct" regulation, but in the end, any rule is a declaration of values. I recently came across Thomas Sowell's comment, “There are no solutions, only trade-offs,” and the trade-offs one prefers are a statement of values. I believe it is reasonable to question how much authority a government institution should have to make value judgments for society. Let me give an example related to climate change.

The science is clear on how CO2 and other greenhouse gases warm the globe. This is not new science; it is repeatable in the lab and can be measured. One might question how accurate our estimates of future temperatures are, although they have been good so far. You can debate some of the effects of climate change. However, it becomes a statement of values for how one responds. There is no proper answer, only value-based trade-offs.

A person can choose to do nothing, valuing life as it is and not wanting to change anything. A poor individual who is struggling to make ends meet may reasonably prioritize eating today over saving the earth for a future they are unsure they will see. A parent might value making sacrifices now for a brighter future for their children and grandchildren. I don't see any of these points of view as incorrect. I may agree with some and disagree with others depending on my values, but we must all begin to recognize the value choices of others, strive to understand and respect them, and seek compromise.

The political party's values will have a significant impact on the narrative you receive as you read the news about Chevron. It's not unexpected that the New York Times thinks the current decision is wrong. We need more thoughtful journalism that will report on trade-offs and identify the values that may drive one to choose a particular action over another.

Wood beats solar

The EIA post How has energy use changed throughout U.S. history? (7/3/2024) has three great graphs. The first is energy production by type and that should be nothing new to a reader of Briefed by Data. The second one surprised me.

I think it is a little questionable if we should call wood renewable. Technically, it can be, as long as you aren’t burning faster than it grows. The energy return on energy invested for biofuels is low, so even though biofuels produced the most, the return was likely poor. What surprised me is that wood still produces twice as much energy as solar. Neither solar nor wind have caught up to wood yet. To put this in perspective, here is the third graph.

We generated 93.6 quadrillion BTU in 2023, and solar managed 1, while wind managed 1.5. This provides perspective on how little solar and wind produce. As you look at the left side of this graph, renewables account for 9% of the energy production, but as you look at the first graph, you realize it is misleading because of wood and biofuels and the fact that solar and wind are not even the majority players in the renewable category.

From the gardens

Hydrangea, the first Hosta to bloom this year, and a poppy.

Google emissions

I keep reporting on new data center plans almost as a hobby now, but now we have concrete example of impact from the Guardian (7/2/2024)

Google’s goal of reducing its climate footprint is in jeopardy as it relies on more and more energy-hungry data centres to power its new artificial intelligence products. The tech giant revealed Tuesday that its greenhouse gas emissions have climbed 48% over the past five years.

Google said electricity consumption by data centres and supply chain emissions were the primary cause of the increase. It also revealed in its annual environmental report that its emissions in 2023 had risen 13% compared with the previous year, hitting 14.3m metric tons.

When your emissions go up 48% over five years, I’d say reducing your climate footprint is more than in jeopardy. It gets a little more ridiculous.

The tech company, which has invested substantially in AI, said its “extremely ambitious” goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2030 “won’t be easy”. It said “significant uncertainty” around reaching the target included “the uncertainty around the future environmental impact of AI, which is complex and difficult to predict”.

Google is building more data centers while computing and AI are growing and using a lot of energy. Unless Google knows something that I don't, I don’t see how this is difficult to predict. I’ll bet against net zero for Google by 2030.

It isn’t just Google

This is from our local paper, the Ithaca Voice (6/27/2024)

When it passed on this day in 2019, the law was heralded as one of the most ambitious climate plans in the world. It established big, long-term mandates — committing the state to net-zero emissions by 2050 — and lots of smaller targets along the way. Now, the growing backlog of deadlines has left the law’s backers in dismay.

“We have all been aghast at just how horribly implementation has been going,” said Eddie Bautista, executive director of the New York City Environmental Justice Alliance. “In just five short years, we’ve gone from being visionary leaders to not being able to implement our own laws. It’s just insane.”

Maybe it isn’t so much “insane” as hopeful plans meeting reality. Here is part of the checklist.

On the plus side, if you like Virginia, NYS will be a nice place to live in the future (see the next section).

Fun climate app

If you’d like to know what your city will be like in 2080, go to the CityApp by the University of Maryland. Go in and click on a city, and it will tell you what it will be like in 2080. The default is the high emissions scenario, but you can change that. Here is what I get for Ithaca, NY.

This is great for someone much younger than me. Pick your place to live based on where you’d like to live in the future. It will get there. 12.1°F warmer than now is not a place I’d want to live, but I won’t make it another 60 years.

Something has gone wrong

From ER Admissions for Self-harm Have Increased Among 10- to 14-year-old Girls (6/19/2024):

The news is not good. ER admissions for self-harm have continued to increase among American girls. Since 2009, more than twice as many 15- to 19-year-old girls and young women have been admitted to the ER for self-harm behaviors in the U.S. Even more shocking, five times more 10- to 14-year-old girls were admitted to the ER for self-harm in 2022 than in 2009 (see Figure 1). That’s 5 times more families taking their 4th to 9th grade daughters to the hospital because they have intentionally harmed themselves.

I think the evidence is strong that social media is bad for all of us, but particularly for girls. It is hard to look at this graph and not feel sad.

The grid is hard to manage

Again from the EIA: Why are Midwest grid operators turning away wind power? (6/26/2024).

Curtailments can be necessary for grid operators to balance supply and demand. Curtailments occur either when generation exceeds electricity demand (oversupply) or when insufficient transfer capacity is available to transmit electricity over its preferred path to meet demand (congestion). Wind is curtailed before other resources in the Midwest because:

* It is cheaper and faster to both shut down and restart wind (and solar) plants than other types of generation.

* On very windy days in particular locations, transmission capacity is often insufficient to receive the large amount of wind power generated.

Note the second bullet point: transmission capacity couldn’t handle the electricity. We can’t move to wind and solar without major upgrades to the transmission lines.

The spinning CD

It is impressive to make it to play in major league baseball, but to do that and release a fun song seems like an embarrassment of talent. Kudos to Mets Jose Iglesias (aka Candelita). I don’t know what he is saying, and it is still a fun song.

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Thank you

In a crowded media market, it's hard to get people to read your work. I have a long way to go and I want to say thank you to everyone who has helped me find and attract subscribers. 

Disagreeing and using comments

I'd rather know the truth and understand the world than always be right. I'm not writing to upset or antagonize anyone on purpose, though I guess that could happen. I welcome dissent and disagreement in the comments. We all should be forced to articulate our viewpoints and change our minds when we need to, but we should also know that we can respectfully disagree and move on. So, if you think something said is wrong or misrepresented, then please share your viewpoint in the comments.