QTRS June 6, 2024
Interesting content for the curious
Quote
"If an opinion contrary to your own makes you angry, that is a sign that you are subconsciously aware of having no good reason for thinking as you do. If some one maintains that two and two are five or that Iceland is on the equator, you feel pity rather than anger, unless you know so little of arithmetic or geography that his opinion shakes your own contrary conviction. The most savage controversies are those about matters as to which there is no good evidence either way."
Bertrand Russell (from FS)
Graph of the week
From Universal wing- and fin-beat frequency scaling (6/5/2024). This one is self-explanatory and really cool.
Wing-beat-frequency data for a variety of flying animals versus the square-root of the animal mass divided by the wing/fin area (same data as in Fig 1).
There is some scatter in the data, which is not surprising given that these are for quite different animals, but to a good approximation the data fall on the same line. The model prediction is the full black line of unity slope unity and the Pearson correlation coefficient is 0.95. Data for swimming animals, corrected for buoyancy and the difference in water and air density (see main text for details), have been included in the plot. The uncorrected data for swimming penguins (open squares) [24], large whales [43] (open purple triangles), and small whales [44] (open light purple triangles) clearly do not conform to the general trend for flying animals. However, with the appropriate corrections, the data points (filled symbols) fall on the continuation of the best fitted model prediction line of the flying animals.
Net zero nonsense
Robert Bryce summarizes a report in Vaclav Smil Calls Bullshit On Net Zero (6/3/2024).
In a 48-page report published last month by the Fraser Institute, titled “Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Net Zero Carbon Is a Highly Unlikely Outcome,” Smil spotlights the enormous scale of global energy use, the slow pace of energy transitions, labor shortages, and the massive cost of attempting to eliminate hydrocarbon use. In every part of his report, Smil brings the numbers. In fact, he brings them by the truckload.
Bryce’s summary is worth reading. I want to make an extra point. From Smil’s report
Copper offers a stunning example of these environmental externalities. The metal content of exploited copper ores from Chile, the world’s leading source of the metal, has declined from 1.41 percent in 1999 to 0.6 percent in 2023, and further quality deterioration is inevitable (see figure 7) (Lazenby, 2018, November 19; Jamasmie, 2018, April 25; IEA, 2021c).
And here is his figure 7.
The basic idea is that for any resource, we get the easier stuff first, and then it gets harder. Why did we start drilling for oil in the ocean? There wasn’t enough easy stuff on land. Why are we extracting shale oil? There is nothing else easier to extract.
What we see for Chilean copper, we will see for all other rare earth metals. At the same time, the same will apply to wind and solar. Solar panels and wind turbines will be located first in places that are the best in terms of the amount of sun or wind and/or the easiest locations.
I’m fine with diversifying our energy by adding wind, solar, and nuclear, but we aren’t stopping climate change, and at best, maybe we’ll limit it a little. In the meantime, we need to start adapting. For example . . .
Can’t live there anymore
The Washington Post reports in Another N.C. beach house just fell into the ocean. Others may follow. Rising seas and eroding shorelines have now claimed a half-dozen houses in Rodanthe in the past four years (5/28/204) (bold mine)
The demise of the five-bedroom house, which county records show had stood since 1970, makes it the sixth house to topple along that part of the national seashore over the past four years, the agency said.
“Another one bit the dust,” David Hallac, superintendent of the Cape Hatteras National Seashore, said in an interview. And it probably won’t be the last, as many homes in the area are perilously close to the surf. “This situation will continue.”
Take a look at their lead photo. “Probably” won’t be the last to collapse? Who wants to start taking bets on the row of houses still standing? At what point do we start making some smart decisions? Should the government, with our tax dollars, continue to clean up or provide insurance for places like these? The national park service was responsible for clearing up the debris. The good news is that adaptation is starting, but maybe this shouldn't be a choice.
Still others last fall agreed to sell their precariously perched vacation homes to the Park Service, which, after spending more than $700,000 for the salt-sprayed houses, promptly tore them down and turned the area into a public beach.
If you want to buy or keep a home near the water like this, then you should also contribute to a fund to eventually clean up the mess. We should start protecting vulnerable cities and relocating infrastructure sooner rather than later.
From the gardens
The wisteria is in bloom, and a bonus close-up of the allium behind the wisteria.
Rebuilding after war
This graph comes from the IMF article Scars of Conflict Are Deeper and Longer Lasting in Middle East and Central Asia (6/5/2024)
Obviously, violent conflict will reduce economic output; the issue here is that the Middle East and Central Asia countries take longer to recover.
The worse effects seen in the Middle East and Central Asia, among the world’s most conflict-prone areas, likely reflect sharper effects from higher-intensity conflicts (which are more frequent in these regions) and the prevalence of exacerbating preexisting conditions. For example, our findings suggest that countries with weaker institutions tend to suffer larger losses than other countries. Conflicts not only impact the countries directly involved but can also have knock-on effects on other countries, with the impact varying based on the channel of exposure.
I’m going to assume there is a similar type of graph for natural disasters. In general, wealthier countries and those with a more effective government can recover from destruction faster. As I think about climate change-related disasters, it seems that one way to help the world adapt is by supporting stronger institutions and improving a country’s GDP. I have to think more about this, but it seems to me that improving GDP and reducing CO2 are at least somewhat at odds with each other. Thoughts in comments are welcome.
Are you more happily married if you marry later?
This seems to be one of those commonly known facts. Marry later, when you are more mature and stable, and you will be happier. Data rule alert: Doubt something everyone knows is true. The article Age at First Marriage and Marital Quality: Updating Outdated Social Wisdom (5/29/2024) casts some doubt on this wisdom.
Overall, I found few significant links between age at marriage and marital quality for women or men. When statistically significant relationships emerged, they were relatively weak. For instance, Figure 1 demonstrates a typical gentle, curvilinear relationship between age of marriage and men’s and women's reported quality of conflict resolution. Also, while most men and women were happy in their marriage, age at marriage did not significantly influence their marital happiness (Figure 2).
Data center update
Microsoft buys 900-acre St. Joe Farm, Indiana, for data center build. Shortly follows plans for $1bn data center in the Northwest of the state. (6/5/2024)
950-acre data center campus proposed in Pittsylvania County, Virginia (6/5/2024)
I have to find some comprehensive data about the growth of data centers. This has to slow down at some point I’d think.
The spinning CD
New from Bon Jovi
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Disagreeing and using comments
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