Graph of the week
We tend to think that planting trees is always a good thing for reducing global warming. It turns out this isn’t always true and the paper Accounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration (3/26/2024) sets us straight. The basic issue is that the trees may change the albedo, absorbing more solar radiation than the previous surface, which may not be made up by the CO2 they absorb. So, planting trees in the red areas of (a) ends up with a net increase in warming
The caption:
a The net climate impact accounts for both albedo change and carbon storage to estimate maximum CO2e. Orange colors indicate net climate-negative locations, whereas blues indicate net climate-positive. For comparison to other studies, we also provide estimates in carbon equivalents (Mg Ce, italicized text to the left of the color ramp). b Albedo offset is the percent of maximum carbon storage offset by changes in albedo. Purple colors indicate locations where albedo offsets >50% of maximum carbon storage, whereas green indicates <50% albedo offset. In both maps, data are binned for display purposes and the scale bar immediately to the right of the maps indicates the 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90%, and 95% land-area percentiles (top to bottom). Source data are provided as a Source data file (see “Data availability”).
Electric busses may not be so great
Ithaca, NY, is about as liberal as it gets, and it was a big surprise to read this in our local paper (4/1/2024—not an April fools joke as far as I can tell):
ITHACA, N.Y. — Tompkins Consolidated Area Transit (TCAT) plans to acquire five new diesel buses in a move that goes against the transit operator’s plans to have an “emissions-free” bus fleet by 2035.
Why you ask?
TCAT Acting General Manager Matt Rosenbloom-Jones said the electric buses have underperformed in Ithaca’s cold winter months and steep hills. They have also become near impossible to repair, contributing to the challenges the transit agency has faced.
Eventually, the repair issues with the electric buses can be dealt with, but our hills aren’t going away, and it will still get cold in the winter for now. This made me wonder about the performance of electric vehicles based on temperature.
I found this graph from a GEOTAB article (2/6/2023; I’m not sure how good this source is though). Temperature has a big impact on battery range, and I didn’t realize that being too warm also causes a reduction in range.
Given this, any bets that NYS will reconsider this mandate?
New York is transitioning to a 100% zero-emission electric school bus (or ESB) fleet by 2035. ESBs are powered by rechargeable electric batteries that run off New York’s clean energy grid and produce zero tailpipe emissions.
There are plenty of towns in NYS that get cold, really cold, and there are also ample hills. Maybe this one-size-fits-all solution isn’t such a great idea.
More on happiness
In last week’s Quick Takes I reported on U.S. ranking in happiness. This week we have some interesting U.S. results from the Chicago Booth Review’s article Marriage May Be a Key to Happiness. A long-running US survey also finds that conservatives are happier than liberals. (3/25/2024) They provide a graph for the marriage happiness differences.
Then they have this to say regarding political differences (emphasis mine).
The survey asks people to rate their position on the political spectrum. Overall, in the entire sample studied, around a quarter identified as liberal, and the rest split roughly equally between moderate and conservative—proportions that haven’t changed over time. Peltzman finds that conservatives are 9 percentage points happier than liberals and 7 points happier than moderates. Those who said they trust the government are 18 percentage points happier than those who said they don’t, he finds.
Flowers
The daffodils are just starting, and the forsythia is in bloom.
Petroleum exports set a new record
From the EIA (4/2/2024):
Petroleum product exports from the United States averaged a record 6.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023, a 2.5% increase from 2022, according to our Petroleum Supply Monthly. Propane drove the growth in U.S. petroleum product exports, offsetting decreases in gasoline and distillate exports.
There is no slowdown in burning fossil fuels from our export market. Just saying.
California’s expensive energy
Robert Bryce is worth reading. Here are two key point from his post (3/22/2024)
The first point is in the headline. Despite all the “low-cost” renewable energy, California has very high rates. But this is what really got me:
A devastating February 8 report from The Public Advocates Office, estimated that rooftop solar incentives in California will cost “customers without solar an estimated $6.5 billion in 2024.” The report is astonishing for its brevity and its findings. The office, which is part of the California Public Utility Commission, concluded that the cost of solar subsidies for ratepayers who don’t have solar has nearly doubled since 2021. It explains: “The recent cost increases are driven by two main factors: (1) a surge in customers installing solar prior to the phase out of unsustainably lucrative program compensation terms, and (2) higher compensation to customers with rooftop solar for the excess energy their systems generate.” The report goes on, saying the main incentive for homeowners to install rooftop solar is a program called net energy metering which compensates those homeowners for “the electricity they generate by more than seven times its relative value to the grid.” (Emphasis added.)
In short, people who can afford the upfront cost of installing solar get paid well for the excess electricity. The money has to be made up somewhere, and that is with higher prices, which impact those who can’t afford to install solar. In other words, the wealthy liberals of California, who care about low-income people, are happy to screw low-income people.
Data center report
From DCD (3/27/2024):
The CEO of British utility National Grid has warned that data center power use is set to grow dramatically, putting further strain on an already-constrained grid.
The spinning CD
If you listen to this one, it will likely sound familiar. Yes, it is Rebel, Rebel by Bowie. It turns out that the folks that bought up Bowie’s catalog did it at least partly to “repurpose” the songs like the one here. This is one way they make money on the catalog they purchased. Still, a good song.
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