Quick takes and random stuff, March 14, 2024
Rome, pirates, propane, a climate feedback loop, future jobs, and more...
Graph of the week
This graph is from the paper Estimating the ‘Missing’ Houses of Silchester. (11/24/2023) The basic question about the Roman site Slichester is related to what appears to be a lot of empty space. Part of the analysis looks at the population size and space of other sites. The gray line represents a 95% confidence interval, while the red dotted lines represent a 95% prediction interval. Silchester is certainly an outlier.
Here are thoughts from the paper.
There are three possible explanations for the anomalously low residential density suggested by the Silchester site plan. The first possibility is that the current site plan is accurate, and Silchester was a typical Romano-British town.
The second possibility is that the current site plan is accurate, but Silchester was not a typical Romano-British town.
The third and final possibility is that the current site plan is not accurate, and Silchester was in fact closer to a typical Romano-British town. This scenario would imply that many timber structures are missing from the site plan but remain unobserved at the site, as is suggested by the Insula IX excavations and the overall pattern in FIG. 3.
A quick rant
Liberals seem confused about why they are losing the working class. Here is an example. I have a 2009 Forester. It was leaking some exhaust in the front of the car, so I brought it into the shop. I was told the pipe leading into the catalytic converter had a crack. Thanks to NYS emission rules, the shop was only allowed to replace the catalytic converter and adjacent pipe, despite the fact that there was nothing wrong with the converter. Worse, according to NYS laws, the new converter has to be from the manufacturer. Cost: $4500 plus about an hour of shop time.
Thankfully, I have a great guy I go to, and he mentioned that these rules don’t apply in PA, and it turns out there is an exhaust specialist just over the border. It turns out to be about an hour away from Ithaca. I went there and replaced the section of pipe and added a spring clamp. Cost: under $200.
Working-class people can’t afford to, nor does it make sense to, spend $4500 on a 2009 car. These types of laws, while nice in theory, really hurt people, but the wealthy don’t care or don’t realize the impact. They will, though, act confused about why working-class people don’t vote for them. A story like this is really powerful, and the shop in PA I went to did mention they do good business from Ithaca.
Pirates matter
From the IMF (3/7/2024)
Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea area reduced traffic through the Suez Canal, the shortest maritime route between Asia and Europe, through which about 15 percent of global maritime trade volume normally passes. Instead, several shipping companies diverted their ships around the Cape of Good Hope. This increased delivery times by 10 days or more on average, hurting companies with limited inventories.
The reductions through the Panama Canal are due to drought. The lower water levels limit the ships that can pass through the canal.
Data centers
Another 340 acres (3/8/2024)
Tulsa World reports developers are proposing a 340-acre data center project known as Project Anthem at the intersection of 11th Street and the west side of the Creek Turnpike.
A climate feedback loop
The paper Amplifying feedback loop between drought, soil desiccation cracking, and greenhouse gas emissions (3/5/2024) provides this example of a feedback loop that increases global temperature.
The graph is self-explanatory, and this is worth noting from the paper.
As the warming trends continue, more (and possibly older) CO2 is released from the soil, which can further contribute to global warming. Thus, a chain of events happens in a cascading manner. Failure to consider the hypothesized feedback loop can result in significant inaccuracies when modeling and predicting GHG emissions from soil. It may also lead to underestimating the overall impact of climate change on critical aspects such as soil health, crop production, and the structural integrity of earthen infrastructure.
From the gardens
Flowers are blooming, so I’ll add a flower photo for the next few weeks. We have about 15 different types of snowdrops. This is Primrose Warburg. The color is off in the picture as the base of the flower is more yellow than green. Snowdrops with some yellow are a bit rare.
Record propane exports
EIA: U.S. propane exports established a new record in December 2023 (3/12/2024).
More propane is exported from the United States than is consumed here.
This is just another example of how fossil fuels will be used. If the U.S. exports fossil fuels, should they be counted as part of our CO2 emissions or the country that burns them?
High school jobs outpace college jobs
The BLS notes (3/7/2024)
Occupations that typically require a high school diploma or the equivalent for entry have the most projected openings of any education level: 7.1 million per year, on average, over the decade. And the occupations shown accounted for about one-third of those total openings.
This is more than double the number of college job openings.
Occupations that typically require a bachelor’s degree are expected to have 3.3 million openings each year, on average, over the projections decade.
Will we see a lot of discontent college graduates in jobs that don’t require college? We’ll see.
The spinning CD
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Disagreeing and using comments
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