Quick Takes and Random Stuff Oct 19, 2023

Ice, energy, social media and families, oil, murder and more

Graph of the week

An information-dense graph is at least partly an artistic endeavor. It should look neat even if someone doesn’t try to read the information, which may take time. I think it should also be able to stand alone, meaning it can be read without a caption. This one comes from the paper Annual mass budget of Antarctic ice shelves from 1997 to 2021 (10/12/2023). There are other graphs in this paper if you want more.

The EIA isn’t betting that CO2 emissions will go down

This graph is from the EIA projects global energy consumption will outpace efficiency gains in most cases (10/11/2023):

Not only does the EIA think CO2 emissions aren’t going down, they expect they will go up, although the range does allow for emissions to stay flat. Here is what they have to say (bold mine):

In our International Energy Outlook 2023 (IEO2023), we project that global energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase by 2050 in a number of IEO2023 cases as global population growth and higher living standards push growth in energy consumption beyond advances in energy efficiency.

In all IEO2023 cases, we expect global primary energy consumption to increase through 2050. Our expectations of global population growth, increased regional manufacturing, and higher living standards indicate that global energy consumption will grow faster than advances in energy efficiency. Non-fossil fuel-based resources, including nuclear and renewables, produce more energy through 2050, but in most of the IEO2023 cases we examined, that growth is not sufficient to reduce global energy-related CO₂ emissions under current laws and regulations.

If the EIA is correct, the Antarctic graph in the first quick take will have a lot more red in the future.

EV demand has slowed

Data Rule 12: Trends need not continue. Whenever I read something like EV sales up some percent stated as a trend, there is an assumption, or hope, that the trend will continue. Worse news sources with a bias, say in favor of EV, will only report upticks and not downticks; a regular reader will then be left with the impression that the trend is always up.

According to the article, General Motors delays electric pickup truck production at plant near Detroit as US EV demand slows (10/17/2023).

The company said in a statement Tuesday that the factory in Orion Township, Michigan, will instead start making electric Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups in late 2025. Originally the company had planned to start production sometime next year.

and

Demand for electric vehicles in the U.S. has started to level off after a couple of years of huge growth. In August, for example, automakers sold almost 111,000 EVs, equating to 8.3% of the total market. But in September, sales dropped to just under 106,000, or 7.9% of the market. Demand for electric vehicles in the U.S. has started to level off after a couple of years of huge growth. In August, for example, automakers sold almost 111,000 EVs, equating to 8.3% of the total market. But in September, sales dropped to just under 106,000, or 7.9% of the market.

Also, keep in mind that EVs are heavily subsidized.

The U.S. government is offering up to a $7,500 tax credit for those who buy or lease EVs. Next year eligible buyers will be able to get the credit at the time of purchase rather than waiting until they file their income tax returns.

The slowdown in EV sales could be temporary or not, although my bet is that it will continue upward because the market share is so small. There is plenty of room for growth. The interesting question is how long, if ever, EVs will take to get close to 100% of all cars. I expect this will take much longer than the optimists believe.

An excellent primer on refining oil

This is a great explanation of the oil refining process. It takes about 15 minutes, but it uses Legos, so that’s a plus.

Murder is down, but

The FBI has 2022 data available, and murder is down to 6.3 per 100,000 people, but I wouldn’t get too excited yet. First, it is down from 6.8, only 0.5 percentage points. We are also still at rates that are higher than anything since before 1999. I’m going to guess that this drop is not enough to be noticed. This is Data Rule 11: Feelings may differ from facts. It is a fact that homicide is down, but the feeling may be that it is not because it isn’t enough to notice.

From the Crime Data Explorer (CDE)

More natural gas

Again, from the EIA (10/16/2023). The math here is simple: if we keep adding fossil fuel energy, then CO2 doesn’t go down, no matter how much wind and solar are installed.

So far in 2023, 10 natural gas-fired power plants have come online in the United States with a total of 6.8 gigawatts (GW) of electric generating capacity, according to our Monthly Electric Generator Inventory. By the end of 2023, we expect another six natural gas-fired power plants with another 1.8 GW of capacity to come online, bringing total 2023 capacity additions to 8.6 GW. The additions include both combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants and simple-cycle gas turbine (SCGT) plants concentrated near the Gulf Coast and Appalachia natural gas producing regions and in Florida. In 2022, a total of 11 natural gas-fired power plants came online, adding 5.6 GW of capacity. Total natural gas-fired capacity additions increased in both 2022 and 2023 after consecutive declines in the prior three years.

In the next two years (2024 and 2025), we expect 20 new natural gas-fired power plants to come online with a total capacity of 7.7 GW.

Screen time and parenting

How Parenting and Self-control Mediate the Link Between Social Media Use and Youth Mental Health (10/11/2023) reports:

New Gallup survey data, released today in a new research brief from Gallup and the Institute for Family Studies, show that U.S. teenagers spend an average of 4.8 hours per day using social media—far more time than they spend watching television, doing homework, perusing hobbies, and playing video games. Only 10.5% of teenagers spend one hour or less on social media. Nearly 30% spend upwards of six hours. Entertainment, communication, and the relief of boredom are among the most common motivations given for this use. YouTube and TikTok, two of 7 platforms examined in this report, account for most of teens’ time on social media, and their use is highest among those motivated by boredom.

These results are nothing surprising, but then they add an extra context:

Children who exhibit greater self-control and/or live with parents who restrict screen time, supervise them, and sustain a strong relationship spend much less time on social media than those without these characteristics. For example, adolescents who exhibit high levels of conscientiousness spend, on average, about 1.2 hours less per day on social media than those scoring low on the trait. If living with a parent who agrees or strongly agrees that he or she restricts screen time, the adolescent reports 1.7 fewer hours, on average, of social media use, compared to adolescents whose parent does not restrict screen time. Youth who report a stronger and more loving relationship with their caregivers and spend less time unsupervised also use social media less frequently.

The negative effects of high social media use on mental health are no longer observed when matching youth on these personality and parental characteristics, and the negative effects on body image problems are cut in half, though they remain significant. In other words, screen time use has no association with an index of mental health problems for teens who demonstrate high levels of self-control and enjoy a strong relationship with parents who supervise them—a minority of American teens. Yet even teens with these characteristics show greater risk of body image issues if they are heavy users of social media.

The spinning CD

The Steel Wheels: Baby Gone

Please share and like

Please help me find readers by forwarding this article to your friends (and even those who aren't your friends), sharing this post on social media, and clicking like. If you're on Twitter, you can find me at BriefedByData. If you have any article ideas, feedback, or other views, please email me at briefedbydata@substack.com.

Thank you

In a crowded media market, it's hard to get people to read your work. I have a long way to go, and I want to say thank you to everyone who has helped me find and attract subscribers.

Disagreeing and using comments

I'd rather know the truth and understand the world than always be right. I'm not writing to upset or antagonize anyone on purpose, though I guess that could happen. I welcome dissent and disagreement in the comments. We all should be forced to articulate our viewpoints and change our minds when we need to, but we should also know that we can respectfully disagree and move on. So, if you think something said is wrong or misrepresented, then please share your viewpoint in the comments.