Quick Takes and Random Stuff Oct 5, 2023
Wind, phones, energy, bees, and more...
Offshore wind has headwinds
From the Bloomberg article Soaring Costs Stress US Offshore Wind Companies, Ruin Margins (8/1/2023)
The US offshore wind industry faces a perfect storm of rising costs, permitting delays and grid connection hurdles – all leading to low returns. Inflation and supply chain challenges have driven up capital expenditure, while financing costs have spiraled due to rising interest rates. Developers want to renegotiate their previously-agreed offtake deals which are no longer profitable while some are trying to cancel their contracts altogether.
and an interesting graph with a related quote
Several US states face a growing risk of missing their offshore wind goals. New York state has a target to add 9GW of cumulative offshore wind capacity by 2035 and has contracted 4.3GW of projects in its two solicitations so far. Developers of 95% of the contracted capacity are now trying to renegotiate their contracts, putting the projects at risk of delays. In Massachusetts, developers of 75% of contracted capacity are looking to renegotiate or cancel their offtake deals. In Connecticut, 73% of the contracted pipeline is at risk and in New Jersey, which is targeting 11GW by 2040, 60% of its contracted pipeline is at risk of delays.
It is hard to read all of this and not think that offshore wind energy isn’t as cheap as touted. I’ll keep saying it. Climate change is real and a problem, but the reality is that the 1.5°C target is not happening, and 2.0°C is probably a long shot. This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t continue to try to reduce CO2, even aggressively, but we also have to focus on adaptation. This is an AND statement, not an OR statement. Then there is this:
Private jet service for your dog
Environmentalists have condemned a “ludicrous” private jet service that transports wealthy people’s dogs, which this week ran its first flight from Dubai to London.
Do you even need to read more (9/30/2023)? I noted in the post CO2 emissions are an inequality problem that if the rich won’t take climate change seriously, how can anyone else?
To put it another way, if the top 10% decreased their CO2 emissions to the level of the next 10%, they would save 30t per person, which is just 2t less than what the lowest 50% currently emits. What should we expect the rest of the population to do if the wealthy aren't going to make significant lifestyle changes?
Peak electricity demand
The EIA has a graph of hourly U.S. electricity demand that shows the second highest peak demand (10/5/2023) this past July.
You might ask, but shouldn’t this have been higher given the heatwaves and global warming? Consider Data Rule 5: Totals can hide extremes, which the EIA points out:
National peak hourly demand can mask regional grid strains because the continental U.S. electric grid operates as three separate electric interconnections with little connectivity to each other: the Eastern, Western, and Texas Interconnections.
They provided the charts this summer for the three regions. Here is the extreme from the Texas grid:
The other two grids were low enough to balance out the record for the Texas grid.
U.K. looking to ban phones during the school day
From the BBC (10/3/2023)
Ms Keegan said mobile phones are a distraction and are often used for bullying.
The new guidelines will be designed to allow pupils to bring their phones to school so they can be used on the journeys there and back, but they will not be allowed to use them during the school day.
However, teachers' unions have described Ms Keegan's call for a ban on mobile phones as diverting attention from the real challenges facing schools.
There is increasing evidence that phones are bad for kids. If you aren’t sure, start reading Jonathan Haidt’s After Babel. Here is a graph from his June post, The Case for Phone-Free Schools - The research is clear: Smartphones undermine attention, learning, relationships, and belonging. As someone in the classroom, I strongly agree with this. It is so disheartening to walk into a classroom today and see that students are all on their phones. Before phones, they would be talking to each other.
U.S. record oil exports
Another graph from the EIA (10/2/2023)
As long as fossil fuels are being produced, someone is going to buy them. I’ll also ask again who is responsible for the CO2 emissions. The seller or the user? Also, note the units here. This is 6 million barrels of oil a day. There are 42 gallons of oil in a barrel. That’s 252,000,000 gallons of oil a day being exported. Of course, the U.S. uses about 20 million barrels a day. The scale here is much greater than I think people realize.
Another college survey
This one is from the Buckley Institute Releases Ninth Annual National College Student Survey (9/26/2023). They showcase this graph
but these two key finding really got my attention:
63% of college students believe professors should be required to make statements in support of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion as a condition of employment
A plurality of college students, 48% to 44%, “cannot bring [themselves] to being close friends with someone who affiliates with a different political party than” them because “that person likely harbors opinions that I find unacceptable”
Colleges think they are at the forefront of inclusion and equity, but in reality, they are part of the problem right now. Colleges are encouraging and fostering divisiveness. The most important thing might be to encourage acceptance and understanding of different political viewpoints. Of course, that might be hard if there is largely only one viewpoint on campus.
Picky bees
Apparently, bees are picky about the flowers they visit. From Honeybees’ foraging choices for nectar and pollen revealed by DNA metabarcoding (9/7/2023):
During the surveys of flowering plants in the 28 plots presenting the six different habitat types surrounding the apiary areas, we found 99 species, representing 73 genera and 27 families (Supplementary Table S7). 39 genera were in flower in June, 43 in July and 50 in August. The agricultural fields found flowering close to the hives were Linum usitatissimum, Brassica sp. and Solanum tuberosum, all in July. Out of the 73 genera found, less than half were found in the honey (32) or beebread (30) samples. The proportions of flowering plant genera that were also found in honey was 40.0%, 32.6% and 38.0% in June, July and August (Fig. 3). In beebread the proportion of flowering plants was 40.0%, 23.3% and 32.0% in June, July and August. Out of the genera found in honey and beebread, 33 genera were not found during the flowering plant survey. The proportion of genera not found flowering in the natural habitat types but found in honey samples in June, July, and August, were 51.5%, 57.6% and 54.8% and in beebread samples 59%, 50% and 44.8%. On the other hand, most of the plants found flowering in the natural habitats were not found in either honey or beebread, being 52.5%, 62.8% and 60.0% in June, July and August, respectively (Fig. 3).
By the way, if you are looking for multivariate data for something like a PCA, check out the article.
The spinning CD
One might expect that a band called a Boy Named Banjo would have great banjo playing. They do. Heart Attack by Boy Named Banjo
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Disagreeing and using comments
I'd rather know the truth and understand the world than always be right. I'm not writing to upset or antagonize anyone on purpose, though I guess that could happen. I welcome dissent and disagreement in the comments. We all should be forced to articulate our viewpoints and change our minds when we need to, but we should also know that we can respectfully disagree and move on. So, if you think something said is wrong or misrepresented, then please share your viewpoint in the comments.
