Quick Takes and Random Stuff Sept 28, 2023
Enso, Ice, Babies, Crows, Worms, and more
ENSO Status
The Washington Post has an article about the current El Niño: One of the most intense El Niños ever observed could be forming (9/26/2023). They don’t provide a nice graph, so I will. The current anomaly has us in the top 7. We’ll see how it develops.
The current El Niño is connected to marine heatwaves, as noted in Environmental physicist discusses marine heat waves (9/22/2023).
In recent weeks, the global average temperature of the sea surface has reached 21.1° Celsius—the highest ever recorded. That's 0.3° warmer than the previous record temperature at this time of year. Since the spring, the temperature curve for 2023 has been about 1° above the 1982–2011 average.
and
We don't yet fully understand the factors that have caused ocean temperatures to jump to these new highs. Certainly, the emerging El Niño event is an important driver. We know from past experience that an El Niño increases the global average sea surface temperature by about 0.1 to 0.2° Celsius. However, this effect tends to come later in the year, when El Niño reaches its peak around the turn of the year.
Furthermore, we're currently observing two huge heat waves in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic, which got underway at the beginning of the year and have intensified and expanded in recent months. This combination of El Niño and extratropical heat waves is driving up global ocean temperatures tremendously, especially since hardly any ocean region is significantly cooler than normal at present.
Microsoft betting on nuclear?
Data centers need reliable power, and it seems Microsoft is at least hedging (9/22/2023) its bets by hiring a principal program manager of nuclear technology.
This senior position is tasked with leading the technical assessment for the integration of SMR and microreactors to power the data centers that the Microsoft Cloud and AI reside on.
The article also notes
With grids around the world struggling, power availability has become a critical bottleneck for data center builders and delayed projects around the globe - most notably in the sector's densest region, Northern Virginia. The lack of clean power is even more of a challenge as data center companies try to shift to renewable sources.
Now if you click the link in this quote, it takes you to a one-year-old article with interesting facts you might not have heard about:
Dominion has told customers that it has power supplies, but can no longer guarantee to deliver the quantity of electricity customers want via overhead powerlines.
and
Dominion could halt power delivery for new data center developments until 2025 or 2026, according to a warning that emerged in a note from Wells Fargo analysts to clients this week. Facilities which are only three to six months from completion should get their power, said the note, but any further from completion might face "significant delays."
Might the future be a place where wealthier corporations generate their own electricity with small modular reactors? Dystopian or not?
Why are there so many single-parent Black households?
Drum responds to an article in the NYT in his post, Were collapsing earnings responsible for the breakup of the Black family? (9/15/2023). The NYT article hypothesizes that the rise in Black single-parent households is due to mass incarceration and a collapse in earnings for working-class men. Drum’s conclusion is based on three graphs:
Whatever happened, the timing doesn't fit mass incarceration as an answer, and there was never a big change in employment or earnings. Something else has been at work.
He starts his post with “basic data” on nonmarital birth rates.
I want to make two observations related to Drum’s comment, “something else has been at work.” As we look at the increasing nonmarital birth rates, the Black rate rose faster than average. I’m having a hard time blaming this on racism. Second, so far, whenever I see data related to success: study time, school attendance, single-parent households, and crime, to name a few. The order is consistently the same. Asians are doing the best often by far, then Whites, then Hispanics, and lastly, often with a gap, are Blacks (a topic for a future article). This can’t be all about racism. Something else is certainly at work, and culture seems to be a key variable.
Crows seem to be smarter than average
From the article For the first time, research reveals crows use statistical logic (9/13/2023):
Beyond using tools, corvids can also do basic mathematical functions, like adding or subtracting. “In the scheme of the natural world, very few animals are demonstrated to possess much in the way of mathematical intelligence (beyond basic numerical discrimination)—things like numerical competence, an understanding of arithmetic, abstract thinking, and symbolic representation,” explained Dr. Kaeli Swift, a postdoctoral researcher in bird behavior at the University of Washington (she was not involved in the Current Biology study). “That several corvid species have been demonstrated to possess some of these skills makes them quite special.”
and
Pushing the crows even further, Johnston and her team waited a whole month before testing the crows again. Even after a month without training, the crows remembered the reward probabilities and could pick the highest number every time. Johnston and her team were excited that the crows could apply statistical reasoning in almost any setting to ensure their reward. "Working with the birds every day is very rewarding! They are very responsive animals, so I enjoy spending time with them,” added Johnston.
Crows are now my favorite bird.
Antarctic lowest max ice extent
The Antarctic maximum ice extent was its lowest ever this year by a good million square kilometers. From NSIC:
Are more babies on the way?
Two charts and a quote from Gallup (9/25/2023)
Americans’ preference for smaller families, which has been the norm for the past 50 years, is shifting as their view of the ideal number of children in a family has crept up to the highest level since 1973. Still, the U.S. birth rate remains low compared with the 1970s, suggesting that Americans’ views of the ideal may not be their personal reality.
While most adults under 30 have not had children, the total percentage of young adults who have had children or want to someday is equal to or nearly as high as adults in older age groups who say the same. Young adults are also more likely than older age groups to think having three or more children is ideal. Thus, the greater risk of the U.S. population shrinking due to a declining birth rate may stem from young adults waiting much longer than prior generations to start having children rather than from a decreased desire to have children altogether.
Thanks earthworms
From the paper Earthworms contribute significantly to global food production (9/26/2023):
Earthworms, in particular, are important ecosystem engineers that influence plant growth via impacts on soil structure, water capture, organic matter cycling, and nutrient availability. Earthworms have also been shown to facilitate the production of plant growth-promoting hormones and trigger effective crop immune responses to common soil pathogens.
Earthworms are critical soil ecosystem engineers that support plant growth in numerous ways; however, their contribution to global agricultural production has not been quantified. We estimate the impacts of earthworms on global production of key crops by analyzing maps of earthworm abundance, soil properties, and crop yields together with earthworm-yield responses from the literature. Our findings indicate that earthworms contribute to roughly 6.5% of global grain (maize, rice, wheat, barley) production and 2.3% of legume production, equivalent to over 140 million metric tons annually.
The spinning CD
Fun song with great sax playing from the Bleachers, Modern Girl
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Disagreeing and using comments
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