World energy consumption

Five graphs to show everything going up

This week, fewer words, but five key graphs demonstrate that while global solar and wind capacity has expanded, so has our consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas. In other words, the excitement surrounding wind and solar is deceiving, as we continue to burn a lot of fossil fuels. The fact that one country has replaced some fossil fuels is irrelevant because CO2 emissions are important globally, not locally. 

The premise appears to be that if we continue to install enough wind and solar, we will be able to consume fewer fossil fuels, yet thus far, wind and solar have only added energy rather than reducing fossil fuel consumption. I'll say it again: we need to focus on adaptation measures since we continue to use fossil fuels.

A few observations regarding the data. I've created five separate graphs to focus on each energy source rather than trying to find a common unit, but keep in mind that we can't compare amounts in different units. The solar and wind data began in 1992, so I picked that year as the starting point for all graphs to make comparisons easier. The data ends in 2022. The solar data is based on the yearly Trends Report from the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme. The wind data is derived from the IEA Wind TCP’s annual reports. In all cases, this is the total installed capacity. The fossil fuel data comes from the EIA International Data website.

I'll leave a few remarks below, but the graphs speak for themselves.

Solar

Yes, global solar energy, in terms of cumulative installed capacity, has grown significantly. In fact, it has doubled during the last three years.

Wind

Wind energy's total installed capacity has not expanded as quickly as solar energy's, but it has developed steadily, doubling in around 7 years.

Coal

Coal usage achieved a new high in 2022. Coal consumption fell a little between 2013 and 2020, but then began to rise again. Note that the y-axis does not begin at 0, making the changes appear more pronounced than they are. The bottom line is that maybe solar and wind have slowed coal consumption a little, but it is rising again. 

Natural Gas

Since 1992, natural gas has grown at a very stable linear rate. It's difficult to argue that solar and wind have had much of an impact on our growing use of natural gas

Oil

The crude oil and lease condensate trend is a little more volatile, although consumption has increased about linearly since 1992. Again, it's difficult to argue that solar and wind have had much of an impact on the trend.

Having said that, it's probable that our fossil fuel use would have climbed considerably higher without the addition of solar and wind power. Maybe, but in any case, we still have a long way to go in eliminating fossil fuels to get “net zero,” and wind and solar have not contributed enough energy to make a significant difference. Warming will continue, and while I support greater solar and wind power, I don't see it having a significant impact on global fossil fuel use, especially not soon enough to keep us below 1.5°C or even 2.0°C. So, what should society do to prepare?

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Disagreeing and using comments

I'd rather know the truth and understand the world than always be right. I'm not writing to upset or antagonize anyone on purpose, though I guess that could happen. I welcome dissent and disagreement in the comments. We all should be forced to articulate our viewpoints and change our minds when we need to, but we should also know that we can respectfully disagree and move on. So, if you think something said is wrong or misrepresented, then please share your viewpoint in the comments.