The race ethnicity confusion
Hispanic, White, both, neither?
There is widespread perception that the White population in the United States will become a minority in the near future. In reality, Figure 1 from my previous post U.S. Demographics, the "Cliff," and wages (9/3/2024) appears to demonstrate this fact, but there is a definition issue. Hispanic is an ethnicity, and when the Census Bureau surveys people, they are asked to select a race (White, Black, Asian, etc.), followed by whether they are Hispanic or not. In fact, the Census Bureau's data (Fifth table in the list: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Sex, Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023) has tabs by race, and within each tab they list both the race including Hispanic and not including Hispanic.
In Figure 1, the White category is indeed White, not Hispanic. The same is true for the other race categories. When you encounter demographic information in the United States, make sure you understand how the categories are defined, particularly whether or not they include Hispanics.
What would Figure 1 look like if we didn’t separate out Hispanic?
Figure 2 is the answer. The race groups in this graph are as follows: White, including Hispanic, Black including Hispanic, etc. By race, the White population is still far from being a minority. One way to think about this is if we decided that, for instance, Irish people have a separate identity and are not counted as White. We don’t do this, and possibly someday in the distant future, maybe Hispanic doesn’t get separated out either. What is evident is that the majority of Hispanics identify as White, which complicates the narrative of Whites becoming a minority.
What percentage of Hispanics consider themselves White?
Figure 3 contains the answer. I excluded AIAN (American Indian and Alaska Native) and NHPI (Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander) from Figures 1 and 2 due to their small populations. I included them in Figure 3. It's interesting to note that some people in each of the Census Bureau's listed race categories identify as Hispanic. However, even among the youngest age group, 0–4, 81% of Hispanics consider themselves White.
What are the implications of all this? First, the United States is a long way from becoming a majority-people-of-color country. That narrative is not true. Similarly, the notion that the United States will evolve into a minority-majority country is suspect and misleading. It entirely relies on how Hispanics are perceived, or really how they perceive themselves. Are they a distinct minority, or are they primarily part of the White majority? Furthermore, how does this change over time? My bet is on greater assimilation as White, and the ethnicity becomes a more minor identity. In other words, more similar to the Irish, Italians, Germans, and so on. As always, reality is more complicated than the media presents.
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Please point out if you think something was expressed wrongly or misinterpreted. I'd rather know the truth and understand the world than be correct. I welcome comments and disagreement. We should all be forced to express our opinions and change our minds, but we should also know how to respectfully disagree and move on. Send me article ideas, feedback, or other thoughts at briefedbydata@substack.com.
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I am a tenured mathematics professor at Ithaca College (PhD Math: Stochastic Processes, MS Applied Statistics, MS Math, BS Math, BS Exercise Science), and I consider myself an accidental academic (opinions are my own). I'm a gardener, drummer, rower, runner, inline skater, 46er, and R user. I’ve written the textbooks R for College Mathematics and Statistics and Applied Calculus with R. I welcome any collaborations.