World energy production by source

Still burning fossil fuels

I plan on making a habit of doing a yearly update on the world’s energy production by fuel source. Last year I posted World energy consumption (3/5/2024) using different data sources and different units. This year all the data come from the eia’s Primary Energy page. In summary, reaching net zero is a distant goal due to our continued reliance on fossil fuels, with renewables accounting for a relatively small portion of our overall energy production. It is important not to confuse electricity production with total energy production.

Three key graphs. Let’s go to the data.

Figure 1 is total world energy production. As you can see, the world keeps increasing the amount of energy it produces, and we are largely back on track after the COVID dip.

Two questions should be on your mind. First is that data rule Normalize properly; ask, “Per what?” Good point, but from a carbon emissions perspective, we only care about total energy, but we’ll look at per capita production. Second, is to ask what sources are fueling the increases. If it is renewables, that would be fine. We’ll look at that too.

Figure 1. Data from the eia’s Primary Energy page.

Figure 2 is per capita energy production. Per capita energy did go up from 2022 to 2023, but we are still below the peak before COVID. Total energy production comes from a combination of increasing the total population and increases in per capita use. What I found interesting here is the increase in per capita production starting in the 2000s. I’m guessing that at least part of this is due to China, but it is worth exploring more.

Figure 2. Data from the eia’s Primary Energy page.

The real question is what sources are going up and by how much. Figure 3 provides the answers. One caveat here is that the eia lumps renewables (wind, solar, and hydro) with other sources such as geothermal and burning wood. Still, that category went down from 2022 to 2023. Maybe less wood was burned, but with all the hype about renewables, we would expect increases in the renewable and other category. What did go up?

Figure 3. Data from the eia’s Primary Energy page.

All three fossil fuel categories went up, although in the case of natural gas, it was only by a little. Each fossil fuel source produces more than three times that of renewables and others with petroleum over 4 times as much. Not only is net zero not happening any time soon, but we are still increasing CO₂ output. Adaptation can’t be ignored at this point.

One more graph. If we take each source in Figure 3 and stack them on top of each other, we get Figure 4. If we read the top of the graph, we have the total production in Figure 1. This helps see the relationship between renewables and the other categories, but I find it harder to see the trend of each source; hence, Figure 3.

Figure 4. Data from the eia’s Primary Energy page.

I know I keep saying this, but the fact is people want more energy, and renewables can’t even meet the increased demand, at least so far. The world will continue to warm likely until fossil fuels run out or at least become really expensive to extract. It is a reality we have to deal with, and all the doomer climate activists aren’t helping. There is no benefit in dwelling on the potential demise of the world. We need to use our energy and creativity on adapting to a changing world.

Please share and like

Sharing and liking posts attracts new readers and boosts algorithm performance. I appreciate everything you do to support Briefed by Data.

Comments

Please let me know if you believe I expressed something incorrectly or misinterpreted the data. I'd rather know the truth and understand the world than be correct. I welcome comments and disagreement. We should all be forced to express our opinions and change our minds, but we should also know how to respectfully disagree and move on. Send me article ideas, feedback, or other thoughts at briefedbydata@substack.com.

Bio

I am a tenured mathematics professor at Ithaca College (PhD Math: Stochastic Processes, MS Applied Statistics, MS Math, BS Math, BS Exercise Science), and I consider myself an accidental academic (opinions are my own). I'm a gardener, drummer, rower, runner, inline skater, 46er, and R user. I’ve written the textbooks “R for College Mathematics and Statistics” and “Applied Calculus with R.” I welcome any collaborations.